The Changing Landscape of Kashmir: Snowlines, Streams, and Shrinking Lifelines
Recent findings from environmental scientists, satellite imagery, and climate data have unveiled a concerning trend in the Kashmir region. A comparison between maps from 1980 and 2025 has shown a significant alteration in the landscape: the traditional notion of ‘permanent snowlines’ is fading away. Snow, once a common sight at 13,000 feet, is now only visible above 17,000 feet, and it is not only thinner but also receding. The incidence of forest fires has surged, and glacier mass balance is in a critical state, with accelerated melting, increased cloudbursts, and the formation of artificial lakes.
The research report titled ‘Water, Polity, and Kashmir-2018’ sheds light on this alarming transformation, attributing it to various factors such as global warming, climate change, rampant deforestation, and uncontrolled human encroachment into fragile alpine zones.
The disappearance of snow is directly linked to a decline in water availability. Previously, winter precipitation would store as slow-release ice, but now, erratic winter rain, which has increased by up to 30% in certain areas over two decades, rushes down denuded slopes, causing erosion without replenishing groundwater.
The impact on Kashmir’s agriculture has been devastating. The arable land per person has halved from 0.14 hectares in 1981 to 0.06 hectares today. Paddy cultivation has significantly decreased from 158,000 hectares in 2012 to 142,000 hectares in 2017, with further decline expected. The lack of investment in irrigation infrastructure exacerbates the crisis.
Agricultural experts warn that if current weather patterns persist, the valley could be devoid of any agricultural land suitable for cultivating rice by 2040. The apple orchards in Shopian and Sopore, known as Kashmir’s apple bowls, are already feeling the repercussions.
Even before January 21, 2026, the trees in Shaikh Abid Shabir’s orchard in Shopian exhibited signs of stress during their winter dormancy. Expressing concern, Shaikh remarked on the dry, grey soil, stating that it should be snow-covered and moist. The dwindling glacier streams, such as Rambiara, which feed their wells, are now reduced to a trickle. The need to drill deeper bore-wells each year highlights the severity of the water scarcity issue. Without the essential snow melt, the apple trees suffer, leading to poor yields and undersized fruits.
The data supports the observations of farmers like Shaikh. Droughts in the summer are a direct consequence of a 40 to 90 percent reduction in mountain water storage. By June, irrigation canals run dry, and groundwater tables in some districts are declining rapidly.
Official data reveals that over half of Kashmir’s districts have shifted from a “safe” to a “critical” stage of groundwater development in just fifteen years. The quality of the remaining groundwater is also deteriorating, with harmful levels of fluoride, iron, and nitrate being reported.
In response to the groundwater crisis, a structured approach is necessary. Community cooperatives or inclusive Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models that promote responsible bore-well usage can facilitate the equitable sharing of water resources. By combining oversight with local participation, this strategy can prevent conflicts and ensure sustainable aquifer management for all stakeholders.
The scarcity of water disproportionately affects women like Rafiqa Bano, who are responsible for securing water for household use. With diminishing springs and a severe water shortage, women like Rafiqa find themselves waiting for water tanks from the Jal Shakti (PHE) department in villages across the Valley.
Rafiqa lamented, “the men are occupied with work or agriculture. It falls upon us to arrange water for the household, but where is it?”
