The Threat to the Indus Waters Treaty: A Risk to South Asia’s Cooperation
Back in April 2025, the Pahalgam attack shook India to its core, leading to a controversial decision by the Cabinet Committee on Security. This decision, which involves putting the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty in “abeyance” and considering diverting waters toward Rajasthan, has the potential to disrupt one of the most successful collaborations in South Asia. By challenging its legal obligations and using water as a political tool, India risks jeopardizing the human rights of approximately 240 million people.
Despite enduring wars, nuclear tests, and deep-rooted mistrust, the Indus Waters Treaty has stood the test of time due to the shared understanding that water should transcend political conflicts. This treaty specifically designates the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—to Pakistan, providing irrigation for about 18 million hectares of farmland, which make up 80 percent of the country’s arable land and nearly a quarter of its GDP. In a nation already facing severe climate challenges, with limited water storage capabilities and unpredictable monsoons, uninterrupted river flows are not just a diplomatic compromise but a crucial element for food security, livelihoods, and social stability.
India’s unilateral decision to suspend the treaty, citing “cross-border terrorism” and supposed “fundamental changes in circumstances,” encounters significant legal obstacles. In June 2025, the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that the treaty does not permit either party to unilaterally suspend its obligations. According to Article XII(4), the agreement remains valid unless both parties mutually agree to terminate it. The fundamental principle here is simple: agreements should be upheld.
The justifications put forward for the suspension—such as population growth, energy needs, and security considerations—fall short of meeting the legal standards set by international treaty law.
