In a recent study by climate scientist Rajeevan, it was found that Western Disturbances (WDs) are closely linked to the mid-latitude jet stream, which consists of strong westerly winds at an altitude of approximately 12-15 km. The decline in winter snow and precipitation in the region can be attributed to the reduced frequency of WDs passing through. Recent observations indicate a northward shift of this jet stream during winter, possibly due to global warming and Arctic Sea ice melting.

A climate modeling research study published in 2019, titled “Falling Trend of Western Disturbances in Future Climate Simulations,” predicts a 15% decrease in WDs by the end of the twenty-first century. This decline is expected to result in a reduction of winter rainfall over Pakistan and northern India by about 15%, as highlighted in the study.

Another study conducted in 2024 has reported a significant increase in the occurrence of WDs during the months of May, June, and July, compared to previous years. This shift is attributed to a delayed retreat of the subtropical jet, which historically preceded the onset of the summer monsoon. The frequency of “monsoonal” WDs is on the rise, leading to more frequent catastrophic events like the Uttarakhand floods in 2013 and the north India floods in 2023.

Researchers from a 2023 study have estimated a 43% decrease in WDs in north India between 1980 and 2019, highlighting the changing pattern of WDs and its impact on climate-induced disasters in the Himalayas. The decline in snowfall and the changing WD patterns have implications for events like Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which are sudden and catastrophic releases of water from glacial lakes, often triggered by the melting of glaciers due to climate change.